Paul Greenwood

Paul Greenwood

Data Scientist — Environmental & Natural Resource Systems

Building data tools for federal natural resource work at USDA Forest Service. Background in healthcare AI — FHIR, Epic, clinical NLP. Most of what I write down is about measuring whether a result survives being checked a second way.

Experience

Data Scientist/Manager

Leading Solutions, LLC // USDA Forest Service · 2025–Present

Environmental data science supporting federal natural resource initiatives.

Sepsis Early Warning — Independent Project

Clinical machine learning · PhysioNet/CinC 2019 · 2026

Early sepsis prediction from ICU time series, built to measure its own failures rather than assert their absence. Moving the model from medical to surgical ICU costs almost no AUROC and 91% of its clinical value — discrimination and the operating point fail independently, and one external AUROC column hides both.

Product Manager & Developer

UNC Chapel Hill School of Medicine · 2023–2025

Built LLM-powered tools for clinical research and healthcare delivery.

Project & Program Management

UNC Chapel Hill School of Medicine · 2019–2023

Progressed from administrative to project management roles, building healthcare systems expertise across UNC research programs.

Recent writing

Your model transferred. Your alerts didn't.

A sepsis model crossed from medical ICU to surgical ICU with its AUROC almost intact and lost 91% of its clinical value. Discrimination and the operating point fail independently, and the one number everyone reports is insensitive to the failure that costs the most.

Five results that did not replicate

I spent a week measuring a biomedical knowledge graph system. Five separate results looked solid at a single configuration and dissolved under a second one. Here is each mechanism, and the one that nearly shipped as a feature.

All writing →